A mere eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. History, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
